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CDC Says COVID-19 Antibody Seroprevalance is 83%, 2.1 Infections per Case Estimated
Related: City Journal, gear, gears of the machine, natural immunity, SARS-CoV-2 aka COVID-19 aka Coronavirus, vaccination
re:COVID
Real science is never settled, and anyone who has certainty on such things is not qualified to discuss it.
Things are looking up.
City Journal: Delta is Dying
by Joel Zinberg, 2021-09-10
...The CDC looked for evidence of prior infection or vaccination in the blood of approximately 1.5 million blood donors from around the country between July 2020 and May 2021. Based on the antibodies found in the specimens, they were able to distinguish between those who had been vaccinated and those with antibodies resulting from infection. As of the end of May, the combined vaccine and infection seroprevalence (indicating the proportion of the population with antibodies and some level of immune protection) was 83 percent for those 16 and older (children under 16 can’t donate blood). Over 20 percent had antibodies indicating an earlier infection and recovery. Based on the infection-induced seroprevalence, the researchers estimated that there were actually 2.1 infections per reported Covid-19 case.
Now, following the surge from the Delta variant, the number of confirmed Covid-19 cases (all ages) is over 40 million, or 8 million more than on May 31. Applying the 2.1 multiple from the blood donation study to the entire population results in a real number of cases and people with natural immunity of 84 million, or 25 percent of the population. In addition, 177 million people are fully vaccinated, which is 53 percent of the total population and 34 million more than at the end of May. An additional 10 percent of the population has received a single dose, which provides some protection, albeit less than the full two doses.
...While there is overlap because some previously infected people have been vaccinated, roughly 80 percent of the country has vaccine or natural immunity. Both types of immunity provide effective protection against Covid-19. The risk of breakthrough infections among the vaccinated is small, and when they occur, the vaccines continue to be effective in preventing serious illness, even for the Delta variant. The CDC also acknowledges that reinfection of recovered Covid-19 patients is rare.
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WIND: there are weaknesses in the study—it only was done with those donating blood, so that cohort might differ from the general population (e.g., the elderly could be far less likey to donate blood). Real figures could be notably higher, but presumably not lower since COVID is well-known to be asymptomatic in many.
Why are politicians demonizing the unvaccinated, including those with natural immunity?
If you want to make the personal choice of risking COVID (smart or stupid for your own personal situation), do so. If you have natural immunity, you not only don’t need the vaccine, it likely carries risks of more severe reactions (think risk assessment).
And if you want to be vaccinated... do so ASAP and then shut the hell up about the unvaccinated, since the CDC data implies that 83% of adults should already have immunity.
BTW, how can we not have herd immunity at 83% seroprevalance? These “experts” seem to be know-nothings when it comes to epidemiology.
