CDC Fake News Models Misleading the Public on COVID Omicron Prevalance
Real science is never settled, and anyone who has certainty on such things is not qualified to discuss it.
UPDATE Dec 28: the original post below was spot-on; the numbers were in fact total bullshit. And still are, which is not to say that Omicron is not spreading fast.
CDC "Substantially Revises" Omicron Cases To 59% From 73%
Instead of being responsible for 73% of sequenced infections for the week ending Dec. 20, Omicron has been revised downward to just 22.5% that same week - making its unbelievable spread from 3% the week before that... more believable.
I was fooled by the Wall Street Journal reporting on Omicron prevalance—looks like fake news based on assumptions. In other words, no science and no real data, just models.
Even a broken clock is right twice a day—models are not science, they are usually a crock of shit, designed with biases (intentional or unwitting). And then when models are fed spotty data, they gyrate around like politicians caught with their hand in the cookie jar.
The WSJ fed us a BS headline based on this garbage, but whether incompetent or intentionally who can say.
A physician (MD) reader writes:
The WSJ didn’t catch the “…estimated…” 73% of new cases until later in the article. That was based on CDC modeling, with no delineation of the assumptions underlying the model. You have commented on the The Spectator’s piece one modeling for the UK NHS by SAGE. There are apparently high rates of Omicron in NY and NJ as well as in Houston TX but how those data are applied to the rest of the country remains a mystery.
The model they are using is “NOWCAST”. Note the difference in the bar graph and number when you turn NOWCAST Off and On. Anything to inject more fear (and therefore control) to the guests in the Casino.
We have had one documented case of Omicron in Arkansas, yet they list the incidence in NOWCAST like 70%. To be sure genomics take time, but still…. The estimate for Region 6 which includes Arkansas is likely driven by the high incidence in Houston.
The thing to watch for graphically will be the relationship between active cases and hospitalizations. If Omicron is more transmissible but less virulent, the hospitalization rate should be blunted compared to what was seen with Delta.
They are so invested in lies and manipulation they cannot possibly tell the truth.
Update Dec 22: Arkansas just confirmed its 2nd case of omicron: that was travel related. Small relatively gradual increases in cases for now. Only about 50% of the population vaccinated. Total of 540K cases reported to date with a population of 3.3 million. Not surprisingly, case rates higher in urban areas (higher rate of testing vs population density favoring spread).
Go see CDC: Monitoring Variant Proportions, toggle the screen shots below to see (my browser is flaky and doesn’t show things at first, refresh the page if the graph fails to draw).
The CDC is extrapolating from Dec 4 using a tiny denominator (very bad idea), as well as assuming that an entire region can be modeled by a few spot checks in metropolitan areas where Omicron is taking hold. This is JUNK SCIENCE. Well, it’s not science at all.
CDC: Nowcast modeling
Nowcast is a model that estimates more recent proportions of circulating variants and enables timely public health action. CDC is providing weekly Nowcast estimates which will be updated every week on Tuesday.