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CDC: Deaths in Children from Influenza, Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV), COVID

re: ethics in medicine

Real science is never settled, and anyone who has certainty on such things is not qualified to discuss it.

Context matters: mortality with two other viral pathogens vs COVID.

Let’s look at the numbers from the CDC.

CDC: Respiratory Syncytial Virus-Associated Mortality (RSV-Associated Mortality) 2019 Case Definition

Over 57,000 hospitalizations, 500,000 emergency department visits and 1.5 million outpatient clinic visits among children < 5 years of age are attributed to respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infections each year in the United States. RSV-associated deaths among children < 5 years of age are thought to be uncommon, estimated at 100-500 per year.

Among US adults, an estimated 177,000 hospitalizations and 14,000 deaths associated with RSV infections occur annually. However, these are likely underestimates of RSV-associated deaths. In recent years, laboratory testing for RSV has increased in availability and practice. A more accurate assessment of RSV-associated deaths is important for establishing a baseline level of mortality ahead of the potential licensures of vaccines, immunoprophylaxis products, and anti-viral therapies...

WIND: deaths are estimated to be as much as 2.5X higher from RSV than from COVID among children under 5! And from what I understand, RSV in children has surged this year. Is that not important context vs COVID? The report doesn’t give estimates of deaths in the 5-17 age group, perhaps there is poor or no data. Of course, we’d have to weigh risks from RSV infection in any risk analysis vs the vaccine for it (none exists).

If you think vaccine safety is assured, please disabuse yourself of that notion: Respiratory syncytial virus vaccine disaster.

CDC: Pediatric Flu Deaths During 2019-2020 Reach New High

...Among the 199 reported pediatric flu deaths:

  • 44% (87) occurred in children younger than 5 years old 12 occurred in children younger than 6 months and thus too young to get a flu vaccine.
  • 56% (112) deaths occurred in children 5-17 years old
  • Of the 183 pediatric deaths that occurred among children with known information on medical conditions, 78 (43%) had a pre-existing medical condition.
  • Only 22 percent of children eligible for influenza vaccination and for whom vaccination status was known were fully vaccinated against flu. This is consistent with data from previous seasons.

...Even though the reported number of flu-related deaths in children during the 2019-20 flu season was 199, CDC estimates the actual number of flu-related deaths in children that season was 434 when accounting for rates of influenza testing among children and deaths outside of a hospital that may be even less likely to be recognized as flu.

...Children should be vaccinated every flu season for the best protection against flu...

WIND: on par with COVID, depending on influenza severity each year (more or fewer).

The CDC advice is to vaccinate ~75 million children (?) ages 0.5-17 to prevent 112 deaths (some of which would still happen). Let’s double that to 224 deaths and assume 41M children ages 5-17. That’s 0.00055%, or about 1 in 183000. What is the serious side effect profile for 183000 children?

I am having trouble understanding the risk/benefit analysis here, if any thing credible exists. And of course, we’d have to include risks from influenza infection in any risk assessment.

CDC: Provisional COVID-19 Deaths: Focus on Ages 0-18

Last updated: Oct 27 2021

0-4 years: 202
5-18 years: 455

WIND: these are alleged deaths from COVID, most of which are surely involve co-morbidites but counted as COVID deaths if only a positive test is seen. Other concurrent infections could be at work too. Also, the year is not over, so the count will be larger than stated. But it also includes the "18" age.

Accepting the figure of 455 from 5-18 years, the pending proposal is to mandate vaccination of ~41 million children ages 5-17 (is that the right number?) to prevent roughly* 455 alleged COVID deaths (some of which would still happen regardless). That’s 0.0011%, or about 1 in 90100. We can extrapolate 1/3 higher to about 605 deaths by December 31, which would be 0.001475%, or about 1 in 68000.

What is the serious side effect profile of a vaccine never before used on children, short and medium and long term? When 68000 children are given the COVID vaccine, can we expect zero (!) to have serious and potentially permanent side effects? Or is it perhaps 0.1 or 0.3 or 8,.3 or 25? No one knows, yet! Of course, we’d have to weigh risks from COVID infection in any risk assessment.

On balance it seems a stretch to justify the COVID vaccines for children. It would make far more sense to vaccinate at-risk children than put all of them at risk.

Apropos: Pfizer Claims Vaccine Will Reduce Average Daily Child COVID Deaths From Almost Zero To Almost Zero

* Mismatch of 5-17 vs 5-18 hard to be sure of exact numbers, plus 2021 is not over.

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