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Experts Frequently Get the Important Stuff Wrong
Related: cognitive commitment, cognitive dissonance, confirmation bias, rationalization
re: long COVID
Apropos to COVID and all manner of medical matters, climate scientism, etc.
No matter the field, experts are often half blind (you don’t find what you don’t look for), and are with rare exceptions, consensus-driven.
Experts as a group never fail to demonstrate their lack of expertise.
The dismal “science” of economics helps make the point, today.
Shocked Wall Street Reacts To Today's Scorching CPI Print
2022-09-13
...pretty much everyone was wrong, with headline CPI coming in at a "shocking", red hot 8.3pretty%...
...a number which 47 of 50 economists missed, and which just BMO (and two other smallish banks, SMBC Nikko and Berliner Sparkasse) predicted correctly.
...
WIND: experts in the media should be particularly distrusted.
And I don’t need experts to tell me that the claimed 8.3% inflation for August is cooking the books, grossly underestimating my real costs of living increases.
