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SARS CoV2 aka COVID-19: Models are NOT Science, Models are for Persuasion
Related: ethics in medicine, gears of the machine, GIGO, SARS-CoV-2 aka COVID-19 aka Coronavirus
Models, whether they be financial or medical or anything else are NOT science. Models are persuasion devices intended to influence people.
Models depend on huge numbers of assumptions, don’t include what was not imagined including expected changes, incorporate questionable data and so on. Out pops a prediction which the media believe and posturing “experts” pontificate about. The anal-ysis in a model is invariably GIGO. But they make nice graphics to justify decisions.
The models for COVID-19 cannot be verified as accurate (or not), now or later: the accuracy of the COVID-19 data is dubious at best. And then there are influenza deaths based on... a discredited CDC model.
Every once in a while a model is shown to predict the past very well. What is not mentioned is that the other 500 models were abysmal. But these are ignored as uncomfortable inconvenient facts. Blind squirrels find acorns.
Then there are the intellectual frauds of relative risk reduction and the failure to discuss net deaths instead of deaths over baseline. Along with all the other context left out of the model, e.g., the death and destruction on the other side of the scale.
Show me a model for a complex situation in which the people preparing it agree to pay a major penalty if the model is wrong by more than 20% and I’ll show you a zero.
