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Ioannidis: Why Most Published Research Findings Are False

re: Sebastian Rushworth MD: How to understand scientific studies (in health and medicine)
re: Sebastian Rushworth MD: How Well do Doctors Understand Probability?

Real science is never settled, and anyone who has certainty on such things is not qualified to discuss it.

Today in 2021, this 2005 paper seems more relevant than ever.

Why Most Published Research Findings Are False

John P. A. Ioannidis, August 30 2005.

...Simulations show that for most study designs and settings, it is more likely for a research claim to be false than true. Moreover, for many current scientific fields, claimed research findings may often be simply accurate measures of the prevailing bias...

It can be proven that most claimed research findings are false.

...

Corollaries

Corollary 1: The smaller the studies conducted in a scientific field, the less likely the research findings are to be true...

Corollary 2: The smaller the effect sizes in a scientific field, the less likely the research findings are to be true...

Corollary 3: The greater the number and the lesser the selection of tested relationships in a scientific field, the less likely the research findings are to be true...

Corollary 4: The greater the flexibility in designs, definitions, outcomes, and analytical modes in a scientific field, the less likely the research findings are to be true...

Corollary 5: The greater the financial and other interests and prejudices in a scientific field, the less likely the research findings are to be true..

Corollary 6: The hotter a scientific field (with more scientific teams involved), the less likely the research findings are to be true...

...

Most Research Findings Are False for Most Research Designs and for Most Fields

Claimed Research Findings May Often Be Simply Accurate Measures of the Prevailing Bias

...

WIND: real science is never settled, and anyone who has certainty on such things is not qualified to discuss it.

Whether it is COVID or climate science or medicine, the only rational viewpoint is one of skepticism.

Today, the news popularizes scientific studies that support a political perspective while ignore all evidence to the contrary. And once established, scientifically fraudulent ideas like the cholesterol hypothesis become embedded and take on a life of their own even in the face of overwhelming contrary evidence.

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