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COVID 19: Relative Mortality Across History, Across Countries, and Over the Past Year? Follow the data, follow the science... is NOT What Governments are Doing

re: BMG: Covid-19: Do many people have pre-existing immunity?
re: Lockdowns Do Not Control the Coronavirus: The Evidence
re: observational study The Lancet: A country level analysis measuring the impact of government actions, country preparedness and socioeconomic factors on COVID-19 mortality and related health outcomes — “in our analysis, full lockdowns and wide-spread COVID-19 testing were not associated with reductions in the number of critical cases or overall mortality”. See analysis and debunking in Does lockdown prevent COVID deaths? — “nothing that various world governments have done to combat COVID seems to have had any effect whatsoever on the number of deaths” and New evidence on the effectiveness of lockdown.

I can’t evaluate all the graphs, direct references to studies, etc.
I cannot easily determine if the things being compared are being compared correctly.
I cannot go verify even a fraction of what is shown.

The presentation is highly data-centric and the tenor is matter-of-fact analytical, which makes it ring true to me.

Context matters: it is also the first time I have seen an intelligent discussion of life-years-lost and quality life-years-lost instead of the painfully inappropriate metric of deaths (of any age)—see the graphs and be sure to watch the video for more insight.

Nothing in the fear-mongering press remotely approaches this kind of analysis, nor do our faux experts like Fauci ever bother to present an analysis like this.

Video

Jan 4, 2021, Ivor Cummins.

Notes and quotes

I did my best here—please refer directly to the video in case I did not get it exactly right.

“We have dumped all of our science on everything, to copy China”.

“Amazing thing: in Japan, a controlled group 50% developed antibodies to SARS-COV2, it spread like wildfire. High metabolic health and prior immunity explain the low death rate”.

  • Lockdowns and masks “don’t move the needle”. A mathematical fact according to all the graphs presented.
  • Experts have been 90% wrong on just about everything.
  • Prior immunity exists to varying levels in different countries.
  • Life years lost per million from COVID-19 isn’t even a blip compared to historical flu outbreaks.
  • Influenza A/B drop off the map with the arrival of SARS-COVID2. Ditto for other coronaviruses, but rhinoviruses not affected by COVID virus.
  • Hospitalizations should lag positive tests, but instead they move in lockstep. This needs an explanation.
  • Seasonal difference in excess mortality year to year is modest at best.
  • Deaths in Europe per million are around 50X higher vs Japan, in spite of the masking and severe lockdowns in Europe.
  • Deaths from COVID “badged with a positive PCR test” make the data suspicious. And PCR tests are notoriously inaccurate with a low baseline rate and too-high false positive rate.
  • Vitamin D levels in Japan are strikingly good, and Japan has very low mortality. Vitamin D levels in hard-hit areas like are abysmal (“poor metabolic health”).
  • There so far has been no real epidemic in 14 of 25 countries versus 2018 using the traditional definition of epidemics.
  • COVID-19 mortality could have been predicted even before the pandemic hit by looking at longitudinal variability of previous.
  • Mortality may be worsened by measures that suppress community immunity.
  • Ireland lockdown madness: ordinary mortality year. Heating up in the winter for COVID-19, but where has the flu gone? There is NO FLU in 2020 there. What is going on there? When a dominant virus takes over, other viruses disappear—and this is a known behavior.
  • Ireland has NO SIGNAL for mortality in 2020 vs prior four years!

Screen captures

From Jan 4 2021 video by Ivor Cummins.

The only rationally defensible metric for assessing the impact of an epidemic is quality life-years-lost, or at least life-years-lost.

Quarantine recommendations from WHO

Does this WHO recommendation match what governments are engaging in today?

Why is the 2019 viewpoint exactly opposite of 2020?

WHO quarantine recommendation for exposed individuals from 2019
WHO quarantine recommendation for exposed individuals from 2019

Monthly deaths per million, historically

Why exactly is COVID-19 considered such a serious issue? It barely exceeds repeated instances of influenza and cannot begin to compare to bad influenza years. And the data is completely bogus, with people badged as COVID-19 deaths in spite of the actual cause, whether it is a motorcycle accident or all sorts of other factors involved.

COVID-19 deaths are GIGO that mangles the truth, and even so it’s not significant with respect to recent past history.

Monthly deaths per million, historically
Monthly deaths per million, historically

Life Years Lost

Estimates are the quality life years lost are on the order of 1 year or less for COVID-19.

“Anyone who comparesCOVID-19 in any way shape or form even in no-lockdown Sweden to Spanish flu is lying to you on an epic scale”.

Peak life years lost from COVID-19 vs Spanish Flu — 1000X worse for Spanish Flu
Peak life years lost from COVID-19 vs Spanish Flu — 1000X worse for Spanish Flu

Lockdowns scatterplot

Stringency of lockdown vs mortality has NO IMPACT on mortality across countries—no association. 25 studies showing that lockdowns have little or no impact.

The Lancet (Chaudry): “Rapid border closures, full lockdowns, and widespread testing were not associated with COVID-19 mortality per million people”. And such studies are dubious at best as per Does lockdown prevent COVID deaths?

Lockdowns have NO IMPACT on mortality
Lockdowns have NO IMPACT on mortality

“No real epidemic” for the whole of 2020 in 14/25 countries

“mortality due to COVID-19 in a given country could have been largely predicted even before the pandemic hit Europe, simply by looking at longitudinal variability of all-cause mortality rates in the years preceding the current outbreak”.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.12.25.20248853v1

Why exactly is COVID-19 considered such a serious issue? It barely exceeds repeated instances of influenza and cannot begin to compare to bad influenza years. And the data is completely bogus, with people badged as COVID-19 deaths in spite of the actual cause, whether it is a motorcycle accident or all sorts of other factors involved.

COVID-19 deaths are GIGO that mangles the truth, and even so it’s not significant with respect to recent past history.

 
“No real epidemic” for the whole of 2020 in 14/25 countries
“No real epidemic” for the whole of 2020 in 14/25 countries

Lockdowns in Ireland

Why don’t lockdowns change the curve at all? And why do hospital cases track in sync with positive rates—they should lag by at least a few days. The explanation is unclear, but GIGO data is one explanation—or infections of people already in hospitals or any other number of things. The sudden uptick in late December is as yet unexplained.

Lockdowns do not correlate with positivity rates or hospitalizations
Lockdowns do not correlate with positivity rates or hospitalizations

Quick—which year is COVID-19?

Which year is COVID-19—A, B, C, or D? There is NO DIFFERENCE in death rate over 4 years. For this, the entire society has been severely damaged.

Lockdowns do not correlate with positivity rates or hospitalizations
Lockdowns do not correlate with positivity rates or hospitalizations

ZERO impact of COVID-19 on total deaths in Ireland 2020

Did COVID-19 happen in 2015, 2016, 2018 in Ireland? Because the death rate was higher in those years than 2020! What was the Level 5 lockdown for? UK very similar.

Lockdowns do not correlate with positivity rates or hospitalizations
Lockdowns do not correlate with positivity rates or hospitalizations

Mortality rates

Look at the striking difference in mortality rate between Europe vs Asia—50X difference!

“Anyone who think that lockdowns or masks, given the scientific literature, could allow for a 98% reduction in mortality is either (1) evil, (2) biased or has conflict of interest, (3) cognitive bias or (4) just plain stupid, or perhaps a mixture of all four [such as Neil Ferguson].

Clearly, something is FUBAR. Fraudulent data (GIGO or perhaps by design?), but maybe something else, like Vitamin D levels or prior immunity. But a 50X difference seems more likely to be intellectual fraud on one side, or both.

Alleged COVID-19 deaths from COVID-19, Europe vs Asia
Alleged COVID-19 deaths from COVID-19, Europe vs Asia

Antibodies in Japan, the Vitamin D factor

COVID-19 spread like wildfire in Japan, hitting 50% of a control group, whose antibodies steadily rose as a group. And yet Japan has excellent high Vitamin D levels (one likely factor, other other likely prior immunity), and very low mortality.

It is sheer insanity that public health policy does not include helicopter drops (so to speak) of Vitamin D supplementation.

Alleged COVID-19 deaths from COVID-19, Europe vs Asia
Alleged COVID-19 deaths from COVID-19, Europe vs Asia

Masks have NO IMPACT on mortality

Hundreds of examples show NO IMPACT of masks on mortality.

Alleged COVID-19 deaths from COVID-19, Europe vs Asia
Alleged COVID-19 deaths from COVID-19, Europe vs Asia
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